UNEMPLOYMENT, POVERTY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study examined the impact of unemployment and poverty on economic development in Nigeria. Specifically, the study investigated the impact of unemployment rate, poverty headcount ratio, inflation rate, and population growth rate on economic development in Nigeria. Economic development is proxied by human development index (HDI) while inflation rate and population growth rate were introduced as control variables. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, error correction mechanism (ECM), and Granger causality test were utilized to analyze annual time-series data from 1990 to 2024. The data were obtained from secondary sources including Central Bank of Nigeria annual statistical bulletin for 2024, National Bureau of Statistics, and World Bank development indicators. The findings from the study revealed that unemployment rate and population growth rate have insignificant negative impact on economic development while poverty and inflation rate have significant negative impact on economic development. The study concludes that unemployment and poverty adversely affect the development of the Nigerian economy. Among other things, the study recommends that policies and programmes that will reduce the number of unemployed and poor persons in the country should be implemented.