DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Abstract

Several variables that determine the growth of a country’s population have been identified. However, birth rate, death rate, and net migration flow are the variables that directly influence the growth rate of population. This study therefore investigated the impact of birth rate, death rate, and net migration rate on population growth rate in Nigeria. Annual time-series data from 1981 to 2023 were used for the study. The data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) annual reports and statements of accounts (various years), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) demographic statistics bulletins (various years), and the World Bank development indicators (various years). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, the error correction mechanism (ECM), and Granger causality test were used to estimate the data. The estimated long-run and short-run regression results revealed that birth rate and net migration rate have significant positive impact on population growth rate while death rate has significant negative impact on population growth rate. The study concludes that birth rate, death rate and net migration rate are important determinants of Nigeria’s population growth rate. Based on the findings, the study recommends, among other things, that there is the need to educate Nigerians on the necessity to have fewer number of children through the use of contraceptives and other birth control measures.